Voters in two German states are going to the polls in elections that could decide the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) seeks to build on its strongest-ever regional result.
The ballots come two weeks after a seismic election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin AfD scored its highest result in any regional poll to date. The nativist party is now expected to drain further support from Merz's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the two states voting today.
The outcome is being watched closely in Berlin, where Merz's position as chancellor has come under mounting pressure. A strong showing for the AfD at the CDU's expense would deepen concerns within his own party about his leadership and his ability to hold together the governing coalition.
Merz, who took office as chancellor after the CDU's federal election victory, has faced a turbulent period in office. The Saxony-Anhalt result two weeks ago was widely read as a warning sign for the conservatives, and party figures have been openly nervous about the prospect of further losses.
The AfD's rise has reshaped German politics in recent years, with the party moving from the fringes to become a significant force in regional assemblies. Its anti-immigration platform and sympathetic stance towards Moscow have resonated with voters in parts of the country, particularly in the former East Germany.
For the CDU, the challenge is twofold: holding its traditional base while limiting the flow of voters to the AfD. The party has struggled to find an effective response, with some in its ranks arguing for a harder line on migration and others warning against adopting the far right's language.
The elections today will be scrutinised not only for the raw numbers but for what they signal about the mood of the German electorate. A poor result for the CDU would intensify speculation about Merz's longevity, while a better-than-expected showing could buy him breathing space.
Turnout and the performance of the other parties — including the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left — will also shape the arithmetic of any coalition negotiations in the two states. Regional elections in Germany often hinge on local issues, but the national implications of today's vote are hard to ignore.
Merz now faces a nervous wait for results. The count will begin once polling stations close, and the first projections are expected shortly afterwards. How the chancellor responds — and whether his party closes ranks behind him — will be the next test of his leadership.
For now, all eyes are on the two states and the voters who will decide whether the far right's momentum continues and whether Merz's grip on power holds.
